Terrain Research

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Margins Narrow as Hog Futures Reprice Lower

Forward hog crush margins have tightened notably from my Q2 outlook. Profitability across the hog sector remains resilient. Iowa State University estimates May farrow-to finish returns at $21.03/head, extending the

Drought Likely Dashing Hopes for Expansion

Hopes of increasing the U.S. cattle herd are on hold again. My analysis of recent pasture and range condition data shows that more than three-quarters of the beef cow herd

Falling Input Costs, Persistent Risks

Lower prices for nitrogen are not without risk. For farmers who typically purchase inputs during late summer or early fall, timing this year could be challenging as market prices adjust

The 20,000-Dairy Farm Future: Consolidation in the U.S. Dairy Industry

With consolidation in the U.S. dairy industry leading to fewer and larger farms, we are rapidly approaching a level of 20,000 dairy farms by the end of the decade. This

From a Viral Trend to a Pistachio Market Mover

Profitability has persisted even as production has continued climbing. Over the past several years, pistachios have stood out as an exception among California permanent crops. While almonds, walnuts and wine

Summer Reset for Dairy Markets

Production of high-protein whey cannot keep up with the boom in demand. Dairy markets have transitioned to summer mode. School milk programs are off for the summer, ice cream season

Weather Takes Strawberry Farmers on a Wild Ride

The California strawberry industry got off to a quick start this season. Volumes started to ramp up about three weeks early, with much higher trays per acre compared with the

A Modest Improvement on the Wine Sales Front

Wine Market Update There hasn’t been a great deal of change in the complexion of the U.S. wine market in early 2026, though the data generally suggest that the pace

Farmland Returns vs. Risk

The theme of this issue of “The Rural Economist” is farmland returns. When purchasing cropland, it helps to know what kind of risk you are taking on and whether the

Connecting Farm Returns to Farmland Value in California

California farmland value trends of volatility and softening from the past few years are persisting, although where they are happening and to what degree are slightly changing. In the Central