Economy Continues to Press Wine Market

Wine Market Update: A Familiar Story for Wine Sales, With Nuances The post-pandemic slump in wine sales shows no signs yet of abating. U.S. wine sales fell across all channels and price tiers in 2025, and the pace of the decline hastened relative to 2024. There were no signs of improvement in the crucial OND (October, November, December) season. Trade tensions also slammed wine exports in 2025. There are some nuances to the story, and while there are only a few bright spots, some corners of the market appear to be less dim than others. Three-Tier Sales Softened in 2025 Based on my analysis of NIQ data, off-premise retail sales fell 5% in value and 6% in volume in 2025, a modest deterioration from 2024. Following a rough start to the year, the second quarter saw some improvement, but the positive momentum couldn’t be maintained in the second half. The fourth-quarter results were a bit weaker than for the full year. Depletions continued to track below retail sales in 2025 due to retail inventory reductions. They fell 6% in value and 9% in volume, according to SipSource data. On-premise sales held up slightly better than off-premise sales. The 2025 results were slightly worse than 2024’s, and the fourth-quarter numbers were the weakest of the year. The depletions data also indicate that wine continued to lose shelf space and menu listings in 2025. Points of distribution (POD) dropped by 5% while the number of wine-buying accounts declined just 1%. Price taking continues to be challenging. Off-premise wine prices were flat again in 2025, according to Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, and have risen just 1% since 2022 — versus a 9% increase in all goods. The stagnation in prices is due to both consumer price sensitivity and heightened competition among producers trying to move excess inventory. The wine market remains conspicuously bifurcated at the $15 mark. While the three-tier market may not see many bright spots or fresh trends in 2025, consumer preferences continue to evolve, with some important nuances to note: Premium and Luxury Wine Sales Continue to Hold Their Ground The wine market remains conspicuously bifurcated at the $15 mark. NIQ data indicate that off-premise sales of bottles priced $15 and over slipped by just a percentage point in volume in 2025, though the higher end saw some discounting. Conversely, sales of lower-priced brands dropped 7%. SipSource statistics paint a similar picture. Non-Alcoholic Wines and Ready-to-Drinks Are Growing The only wine categories that experienced outright growth in 2025 were ready-to-drinks (RTDs) and non-alcoholic wines. Sales of wine-based RTDs surged 30% to $1.2 billion according to NIQ, largely due to the success of BeatBox. Meanwhile, non-alcoholic wine sales swelled 22%, though they still represent just a fraction of wine sales. White and Sparkling Wines Are Still Outperforming White and sparkling wine sales held up better than red wine sales again in 2025. The outperformance for white varietals continues to be attributable mostly to solid Sauvignon Blanc sales, as Chardonnay sales fell at a slightly faster clip than the market overall. An uptick in Champagne and Prosecco sales boosted the sparkling wine category. The 500ml container was the sweet spot. Alternative Packaging Is Gaining Traction Depletions of wine packaged in glass, boxes and cans fell 9% in volume in 2025, according to SipSource figures, while other packaging types recorded an increase of 4%. The outperformance was driven by the Tetra Pak/carton and “other” categories. Sales of smaller formats (